Chinese economic data deviate from the Puzzle Quest tsumori chisato

Chinese economic data deviate from the mystery of the sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Shen Jianguang Chinese the current economic data in July although not so pessimistic, but the policy is difficult to continue to overweight, will not have a stronger stimulus, so the expected macroeconomic indicators may to the end of the year is also difficult to see improvement, to prevent asset bubbles the task is still heavy. Chinese economic data deviate from the mystery of recent economic data Chinese deviatefrom phenomenon prominent, increase the difficulty to judge the macro economic situation. For example, in July the main macroeconomic data generally sluggish, continued to decline, but the official manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, a 22 month high, showing good signs of economic profits of industrial enterprises rose; in July, power generation is strong, and weak industrial production and investment decline in stark contrast to the situation. As of July industrial profits grew 11%, the growth rate in June, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year growth, generating capacity increased from 2.1% in June to 7.2%, but the above scale industrial added value increased by 6% over the same period, compared with June continued to fall 0.2 percentage points. The 1-7 month fixed asset investment fell to 8.1% year on year, fell by 1-6 percentage points over the month of, steady growth in the policy did not reduce the heat of the background, all the way down the investment, data deviate from the concern. What is the logic behind the fog? Economic situation in the end is to stabilize or continue to slump? The decline in industrial production and electricity generation, profits from a noteworthy aspect is the decline in industrial added value and strong power generation, profit from the mystery of the deviation. Data show that in July the scale of industrial added value grew by 6%, the growth rate down by more than 0.2 percentage points in June. However, the industrial enterprises above the scale of profits in July year-on-year growth of 11%, the growth rate in June, up 5.9 percentage points, the highest since the 4 month highs; electricity generation and consumption growth, power generation year-on-year growth rate rose from 2.1% in June to 7.2%, with the growth of electricity consumption rose from 8.2% to 2.6% in June. Figure 1: industrial production and power generation data deviate from the general, power generation and industrial production has a high positive correlation, the deviation of the direction is abnormal. In this regard, the Bureau of statistics gives three points to explain the reasons: first, the high temperature caused by the increase in electricity consumption, and the flood disaster is the short-term adverse impact on industrial production, and the three is the lower base of industrial electricity consumption of two. However, in my opinion, the above three explanations of the data and there is still a departure from the Department, the explanatory power is weak. The first reason is the high temperature caused by the increase in electricity consumption. Indeed, high temperature has great influence on the residential electricity and electricity services, but also because of this, the power consumption of urban and rural residents in July year-on-year growth of 5.4% from June to accelerate to 9.6%, third of industrial electricity consumption growth accelerated from 8% in June 15.3%. However, due to the use of electricity and electricity consumption of the third industry accounted for only about 25.6% of the total electricity consumption, down, residents and the industry as a result of the high temperature of the increase in electricity consumption for all of the use of only third相关的主题文章: